Riding profile
Newport West and Islwyn
The question
Newport West and Islwyn: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Newport West and Islwyn, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 22% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Ruth Jones
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNewport West and Islwyn | 30.0% | 22.2% | 12.9% | 12.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.7 | 21.7% +0.5 | 18.9% −6.0 | 11.8% +0.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruth Jones Elected | Labour | 17,409 | 41.5 | — |
| Paul Taylor | Reform UK | 8,541 | 20.4 | — |
| Nick Jones | Conservative | 6,710 | 16.0 | — |
| Brandon Ham | Plaid Cymru | 3,529 | 8.4 | — |
| Mike Hamilton | Lib Dems | 2,087 | 5.0 | — |
| Kerry Vosper | Green | 2,078 | 5.0 | — |
| George Etheridge | Other | 1,597 | 3.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029