Riding profile

Newport West and Islwyn

UK constituency — Wales · Mixed · wales

The question

Newport West and Islwyn: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.8
P(close race)
3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 28.7%
  • Labour 21.9%
  • Plaid Cymru 16.6%
  • Conservative 12.7%
  • Green 10.6%
  • Lib Dems 5.0%
  • Other 4.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Plaid Cymru Conservative
HereNewport West and Islwyn 28.7%21.9%16.6%12.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +3.4 21.8% +0.1 1.2% +15.3 19.3% −6.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Newport West and Islwyn, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 22% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ruth Jones

Sits with Labour

Since
2019-04-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
21.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ruth Jones Elected Labour 17,409 41.5 —
Paul Taylor Reform UK 8,541 20.4 —
Nick Jones Conservative 6,710 16.0 —
Brandon Ham Plaid Cymru 3,529 8.4 —
Mike Hamilton Lib Dems 2,087 5.0 —
Kerry Vosper Green 2,078 5.0 —
George Etheridge Other 1,597 3.8 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,855
Median age
42
Employment rate
78.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029