Riding profile
Cardiff East
The question
Cardiff East: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Cardiff East, an urban constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 23% vote share, against 19% for the Green Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Jo Stevens
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.9
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCardiff East | 23.2% | 18.9% | 17.4% | 15.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +1.6 | 11.8% +7.0 | 25.3% −8.0 | 11.6% +3.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jo Stevens Elected | Labour | 15,833 | 40.5 | — |
| Rodney Berman | Lib Dems | 6,736 | 17.2 | — |
| Lee Canning | Reform UK | 4,980 | 12.7 | — |
| Sam Coates | Green | 3,916 | 10.0 | — |
| Beatrice Brandon | Conservative | 3,913 | 10.0 | — |
| Cadewyn Skelley | Plaid Cymru | 3,550 | 9.1 | — |
| John Williams | Other | 195 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029