Riding profile

Cardiff East

UK constituency — Wales · Urban · wales

The question

Cardiff East: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
2.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 24.6%
  • Labour 22.3%
  • Plaid Cymru 15.9%
  • Green 14.7%
  • Lib Dems 13.4%
  • Conservative 7.5%
  • Other 1.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Plaid Cymru Green
HereCardiff East 24.6%22.3%15.9%14.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% −0.7 21.8% +0.5 1.2% +14.7 10.8% +3.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Cardiff East, an urban constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 25% vote share, against 22% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jo Stevens

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
23.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-20.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jo Stevens Elected Labour 15,833 40.5 —
Rodney Berman Lib Dems 6,736 17.2 —
Lee Canning Reform UK 4,980 12.7 —
Sam Coates Green 3,916 10.0 —
Beatrice Brandon Conservative 3,913 10.0 —
Cadewyn Skelley Plaid Cymru 3,550 9.1 —
John Williams Other 195 0.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
111,599
Median age
33
Employment rate
80.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029