Riding profile
Newport East
The question
Newport East: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Newport East, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 20% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jessica Morden
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNewport East | 28.9% | 19.6% | 14.5% | 13.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +3.6 | 21.7% −2.0 | 18.9% −4.4 | 11.8% +1.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessica Morden Elected | Labour | 16,370 | 42.5 | — |
| Tommy Short | Reform UK | 7,361 | 19.1 | — |
| Rachel Buckler | Conservative | 6,487 | 16.8 | — |
| Jonathan Clark | Plaid Cymru | 2,239 | 5.8 | — |
| Lauren James | Green | 2,092 | 5.4 | — |
| John Miller | Lib Dems | 2,045 | 5.3 | — |
| Pippa Bartolotti | Other | 1,802 | 4.7 | — |
| Mike Ford | Other | 135 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029