Riding profile

Newport East

UK constituency — Wales · Mixed · wales

The question

Newport East: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.9
P(close race)
17%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 28.3%
  • Labour 22.4%
  • Plaid Cymru 15.9%
  • Conservative 12.9%
  • Green 11.0%
  • Other 5.0%
  • Lib Dems 4.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Plaid Cymru Conservative
HereNewport East 28.3%22.4%15.9%12.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +2.9 21.8% +0.6 1.2% +14.7 19.3% −6.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Newport East, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 22% for Labour, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Jessica Morden

Sits with Labour

Since
2005-05-05
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
23.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-17.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jessica Morden Elected Labour 16,370 42.5 —
Tommy Short Reform UK 7,361 19.1 —
Rachel Buckler Conservative 6,487 16.8 —
Jonathan Clark Plaid Cymru 2,239 5.8 —
Lauren James Green 2,092 5.4 —
John Miller Lib Dems 2,045 5.3 —
Pippa Bartolotti Other 1,802 4.7 —
Mike Ford Other 135 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
111,847
Median age
37
Employment rate
74.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029