Riding profile

Caerphilly

UK constituency — Wales · Mixed · wales

The question

Caerphilly: will Labour lose this seat to Plaid Cymru?

Current forecast

Plaid Cymru

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.2
P(close race)
11%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Plaid Cymru 32.2%
  • Reform UK 26.0%
  • Labour 19.9%
  • Green 9.0%
  • Conservative 8.0%
  • Lib Dems 4.1%
  • Other 0.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Plaid Cymru Reform UK Labour Green
HereCaerphilly 32.2%26.0%19.9%9.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 1.2% +31.0 25.4% +0.6 21.8% −1.9 10.8% −1.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Caerphilly, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Plaid Cymru ahead at 32% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Chris Evans

Sits with Labour

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
16.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chris Evans Elected Labour 14,538 38.0 —
Lindsay Whittle Plaid Cymru 8,119 21.2 —
Joshua Kim Reform UK 7,754 20.3 —
Brandon Gorman Conservative 4,385 11.5 —
Steve Aicheler Lib Dems 1,788 4.7 —
Mark Thomas Green 1,650 4.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
96,268
Median age
42
Employment rate
77.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029