Riding profile
Caerphilly
The question
Caerphilly: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Caerphilly, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 26% vote share, against 25% for Plaid Cymru, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Chris Evans
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 73%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.0
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Plaid Cymru | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCaerphilly | 26.0% | 25.4% | 20.2% | 11.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +0.7 | 1.0% +24.3 | 21.7% −1.4 | 11.8% +0.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Evans Elected | Labour | 14,538 | 38.0 | — |
| Lindsay Whittle | Plaid Cymru | 8,119 | 21.2 | — |
| Joshua Kim | Reform UK | 7,754 | 20.3 | — |
| Brandon Gorman | Conservative | 4,385 | 11.5 | — |
| Steve Aicheler | Lib Dems | 1,788 | 4.7 | — |
| Mark Thomas | Green | 1,650 | 4.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029