Cardiff North
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 7%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Plaid Cymru | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff North | 28.1% | 18.6% | 17.6% | 16.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+1.6 | 20.0%−1.5 | 1.3%+16.2 | 22.3%−5.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,983 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 72.7% |
Current member
Anna McMorrin · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 23.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 9.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anna McMorrin Elected | Labour | 20,849 | 43.9 |
| Joel Williams | Conservative | 9,642 | 20.3 |
| Lawrence Gwynn | Reform UK | 5,985 | 12.6 |
| Malcolm Phillips | Plaid Cymru | 4,669 | 9.8 |
| Irfan Latif | Lib Dems | 3,168 | 6.7 |
| Meg Shepherd-Foster | Green | 3,160 | 6.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cardiff East Labour, competitive
- Caerphilly Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Cardiff West Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Cardiff South and Penarth Labour, safe seat
- Pontypridd Labour, toss-up
- Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated