Riding profile

Cardiff North

UK constituency — Wales · Urban · wales

The question

Cardiff North: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
71%
Mean margin (pts)
0.9
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 23.5%
  • Labour 23.1%
  • Conservative 16.7%
  • Plaid Cymru 15.1%
  • Green 12.3%
  • Lib Dems 8.5%
  • Other 0.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru
HereCardiff North 23.5%23.1%16.7%15.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% −1.8 21.8% +1.2 19.3% −2.6 1.2% +13.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Cardiff North, an urban constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 24% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Anna McMorrin

Sits with Labour

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
23.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Anna McMorrin Elected Labour 20,849 43.9 —
Joel Williams Conservative 9,642 20.3 —
Lawrence Gwynn Reform UK 5,985 12.6 —
Malcolm Phillips Plaid Cymru 4,669 9.8 —
Irfan Latif Lib Dems 3,168 6.7 —
Meg Shepherd-Foster Green 3,160 6.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,983
Median age
40
Employment rate
72.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029