Riding profile
Cardiff North
The question
Cardiff North: a safe seat for Labour?
Editorial read
Cardiff North, an urban constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 30% vote share, against 19% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Anna McMorrin
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCardiff North | 30.0% | 18.6% | 16.3% | 15.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +8.3 | 25.3% −6.7 | 18.9% −2.6 | 11.8% +3.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anna McMorrin Elected | Labour | 20,849 | 43.9 | — |
| Joel Williams | Conservative | 9,642 | 20.3 | — |
| Lawrence Gwynn | Reform UK | 5,985 | 12.6 | — |
| Malcolm Phillips | Plaid Cymru | 4,669 | 9.8 | — |
| Irfan Latif | Lib Dems | 3,168 | 6.7 | — |
| Meg Shepherd-Foster | Green | 3,160 | 6.7 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029