Riding profile
Pontypridd
The question
Pontypridd: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Pontypridd, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 22% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Alex Davies-Jones
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.7
- P(close race)
- 1%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Plaid Cymru | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePontypridd | 28.0% | 22.0% | 17.7% | 12.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +2.7 | 21.7% +0.3 | 1.0% +16.7 | 11.8% +0.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Davies-Jones Elected | Labour | 16,225 | 41.2 | — |
| Steven Bayliss | Reform UK | 7,823 | 19.9 | — |
| William Rees | Plaid Cymru | 5,275 | 13.4 | — |
| Jack Robson | Conservative | 3,775 | 9.6 | — |
| Wayne Owen | Other | 2,567 | 6.5 | — |
| Angela Karadog | Green | 1,865 | 4.7 | — |
| David Mathias | Lib Dems | 1,606 | 4.1 | — |
| Joe Biddulph | Other | 198 | 0.5 | — |
| Jonathan Bishop | Other | 44 | 0.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029