Riding profile
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare
The question
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 86%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.2
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Plaid Cymru | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMerthyr Tydfil and Aberdare | 27.7% | 26.7% | 23.9% | 8.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +2.3 | 1.2% +25.5 | 21.8% +2.1 | 10.8% −2.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 27% for Plaid Cymru, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Gerald Jones
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Jones Elected | Labour | 15,791 | 44.8 | — |
| Gareth Thomas | Reform UK | 8,344 | 23.7 | — |
| Francis Whitefoot | Plaid Cymru | 4,768 | 13.5 | — |
| Amanda Jenner | Conservative | 2,687 | 7.6 | — |
| Jade Smith | Lib Dems | 1,276 | 3.6 | — |
| Peter Griffin | Green | 1,231 | 3.5 | — |
| Anthony Cole | Other | 531 | 1.5 | — |
| Lorezo De Gregori | Other | 375 | 1.1 | — |
| Bob Davenport | Other | 212 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029