Riding profile
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare
The question
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 21% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Gerald Jones
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Plaid Cymru | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMerthyr Tydfil and Aberdare | 30.9% | 21.4% | 21.1% | 11.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +5.6 | 21.7% −0.2 | 1.0% +20.1 | 11.8% −0.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Jones Elected | Labour | 15,791 | 44.8 | — |
| Gareth Thomas | Reform UK | 8,344 | 23.7 | — |
| Francis Whitefoot | Plaid Cymru | 4,768 | 13.5 | — |
| Amanda Jenner | Conservative | 2,687 | 7.6 | — |
| Jade Smith | Lib Dems | 1,276 | 3.6 | — |
| Peter Griffin | Green | 1,231 | 3.5 | — |
| Anthony Cole | Other | 531 | 1.5 | — |
| Lorezo De Gregori | Other | 375 | 1.1 | — |
| Bob Davenport | Other | 212 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029