Riding profile
Cardiff West
The question
Cardiff West: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Cardiff West, an urban constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Plaid Cymru ahead at 24% vote share, against 21% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Mr Alex Barros-Curtis
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Plaid Cymru
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.4
- P(close race)
- 71%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Plaid Cymru | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCardiff West | 24.0% | 20.6% | 19.3% | 15.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 1.0% +22.9 | 21.7% −1.0 | 25.3% −6.0 | 11.8% +3.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Barros-Curtis Elected | Labour | 16,442 | 36.7 | — |
| Kiera Marshall | Plaid Cymru | 9,423 | 21.1 | — |
| James Hamblin | Conservative | 6,835 | 15.3 | — |
| Peter Hopkins | Reform UK | 5,626 | 12.6 | — |
| Jess Ryan | Green | 3,157 | 7.0 | — |
| Manda Rigby | Lib Dems | 1,921 | 4.3 | — |
| Neil McEvoy | Other | 1,041 | 2.3 | — |
| John Urquhart | Other | 241 | 0.5 | — |
| Sean Wesley | Other | 71 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029