Riding profile

Cardiff West

UK constituency — Wales · Urban · wales

The question

Cardiff West: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Plaid Cymru

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.1
P(close race)
45%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Plaid Cymru 26.7%
  • Reform UK 21.5%
  • Labour 18.1%
  • Conservative 12.0%
  • Green 11.5%
  • Lib Dems 6.3%
  • Other 3.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Plaid Cymru Reform UK Labour Conservative
HereCardiff West 26.7%21.5%18.1%12.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 1.2% +25.4 25.4% −3.8 21.8% −3.7 19.3% −7.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Cardiff West, an urban constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Plaid Cymru ahead at 27% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mr Alex Barros-Curtis

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
15.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alex Barros-Curtis Elected Labour 16,442 36.7 —
Kiera Marshall Plaid Cymru 9,423 21.1 —
James Hamblin Conservative 6,835 15.3 —
Peter Hopkins Reform UK 5,626 12.6 —
Jess Ryan Green 3,157 7.0 —
Manda Rigby Lib Dems 1,921 4.3 —
Neil McEvoy Other 1,041 2.3 —
John Urquhart Other 241 0.5 —
Sean Wesley Other 71 0.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
104,802
Median age
38
Employment rate
65.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029