Riding profile
Vale of Glamorgan
The question
Vale of Glamorgan: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.5
- P(close race)
- 99%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Plaid Cymru | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereVale of Glamorgan | 26.9% | 23.4% | 19.0% | 13.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +1.5 | 19.3% +4.1 | 21.8% −2.8 | 1.2% +11.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Vale of Glamorgan, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 27% vote share, against 23% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Kanishka Narayan
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kanishka Narayan Elected | Labour | 17,740 | 38.7 | — |
| Alun Cairns | Conservative | 13,524 | 29.5 | — |
| Toby Rhodes-Matthews | Reform UK | 6,973 | 15.2 | — |
| Ian Johnson | Plaid Cymru | 3,245 | 7.1 | — |
| Lynden Mack | Green | 1,881 | 4.1 | — |
| Steven Rajam | Lib Dems | 1,612 | 3.5 | — |
| Stuart Field | Other | 669 | 1.5 | — |
| Steven Sluman | Other | 182 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029