Riding profile

Bridgend

UK constituency — Wales · Mixed · wales

The question

Bridgend: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.9
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 27.8%
  • Labour 19.9%
  • Plaid Cymru 16.3%
  • Conservative 13.3%
  • Green 10.3%
  • Other 7.4%
  • Lib Dems 4.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Plaid Cymru Conservative
HereBridgend 27.8%19.9%16.3%13.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +2.5 21.8% −1.9 1.2% +15.1 19.3% −6.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Bridgend, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 20% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Chris Elmore

Sits with Labour

Since
2016-05-05
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
20.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chris Elmore Elected Labour 16,516 39.9 —
Caroline Jones Reform UK 7,921 19.1 —
Anita Boateng Conservative 6,764 16.4 —
Iolo Caudy Plaid Cymru 3,629 8.8 —
Mark John Other 3,338 8.1 —
Debra Cooper Green 1,760 4.3 —
Claire Waller Lib Dems 1,446 3.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,831
Median age
43
Employment rate
72.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029