Riding profile
Bridgend
The question
Bridgend: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Bridgend, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 22% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Chris Elmore
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Plaid Cymru | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBridgend | 28.9% | 21.7% | 12.6% | 11.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +3.6 | 21.7% | 18.9% −6.3 | 1.0% +10.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Elmore Elected | Labour | 16,516 | 39.9 | — |
| Caroline Jones | Reform UK | 7,921 | 19.1 | — |
| Anita Boateng | Conservative | 6,764 | 16.4 | — |
| Iolo Caudy | Plaid Cymru | 3,629 | 8.8 | — |
| Mark John | Other | 3,338 | 8.1 | — |
| Debra Cooper | Green | 1,760 | 4.3 | — |
| Claire Waller | Lib Dems | 1,446 | 3.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029