Riding profile
Aberafan Maesteg
The question
Aberafan Maesteg: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Aberafan Maesteg, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Stephen Kinnock
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.5
- P(close race)
- 1%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Plaid Cymru | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAberafan Maesteg | 29.4% | 23.4% | 21.6% | 10.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.0 | 21.7% +1.8 | 1.0% +20.5 | 11.8% −0.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Kinnock Elected | Labour | 17,838 | 49.9 | — |
| Mark Griffiths | Reform UK | 7,484 | 20.9 | — |
| Colin Deere | Plaid Cymru | 4,719 | 13.2 | — |
| Abigail Mainon | Conservative | 2,903 | 8.1 | — |
| Nigel Hill | Green | 1,094 | 3.1 | — |
| Justin Griffiths | Lib Dems | 916 | 2.6 | — |
| Captain Beany | Other | 618 | 1.7 | — |
| Rhiannon Morrissey | Other | 183 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029