Riding profile
Aberafan Maesteg
The question
Aberafan Maesteg: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 56%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.7
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Plaid Cymru | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAberafan Maesteg | 27.2% | 26.9% | 26.4% | 8.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +5.4 | 1.2% +25.7 | 25.4% +1.1 | 10.8% −2.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Aberafan Maesteg, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 27% vote share, against 27% for Plaid Cymru, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Stephen Kinnock
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Kinnock Elected | Labour | 17,838 | 49.9 | — |
| Mark Griffiths | Reform UK | 7,484 | 20.9 | — |
| Colin Deere | Plaid Cymru | 4,719 | 13.2 | — |
| Abigail Mainon | Conservative | 2,903 | 8.1 | — |
| Nigel Hill | Green | 1,094 | 3.1 | — |
| Justin Griffiths | Lib Dems | 916 | 2.6 | — |
| Captain Beany | Other | 618 | 1.7 | — |
| Rhiannon Morrissey | Other | 183 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029