Riding profile
Swansea West
The question
Swansea West: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Swansea West, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 24% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Torsten Bell
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.3
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Plaid Cymru | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSwansea West | 23.9% | 23.3% | 17.7% | 14.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% −1.4 | 21.7% +1.6 | 1.0% +16.6 | 11.8% +2.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torsten Bell Elected | Labour | 14,761 | 41.4 | — |
| Patrick Benham-Crosswell | Reform UK | 6,246 | 17.5 | — |
| Michael O'Carroll | Lib Dems | 4,367 | 12.3 | — |
| Gwyn Williams | Plaid Cymru | 4,105 | 11.5 | — |
| Tara-Jane Sutcliffe | Conservative | 3,536 | 9.9 | — |
| Peter Jones | Green | 2,305 | 6.5 | — |
| Gareth Bromhall | Other | 337 | 0.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029