Riding profile

Swansea West

UK constituency — Wales · Mixed · wales

The question

Swansea West: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.1
P(close race)
83%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 28.1%
  • Labour 24.0%
  • Plaid Cymru 18.5%
  • Green 12.5%
  • Lib Dems 8.3%
  • Conservative 6.8%
  • Other 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Plaid Cymru Green
HereSwansea West 28.1%24.0%18.5%12.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +2.7 21.8% +2.2 1.2% +17.2 10.8% +1.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Swansea West, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Torsten Bell

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
23.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Torsten Bell Elected Labour 14,761 41.4 —
Patrick Benham-Crosswell Reform UK 6,246 17.5 —
Michael O'Carroll Lib Dems 4,367 12.3 —
Gwyn Williams Plaid Cymru 4,105 11.5 —
Tara-Jane Sutcliffe Conservative 3,536 9.9 —
Peter Jones Green 2,305 6.5 —
Gareth Bromhall Other 337 0.9 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
106,849
Median age
36
Employment rate
54.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029