Riding profile

Neath and Swansea East

UK constituency — Wales · Mixed · wales

The question

Neath and Swansea East: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.2
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 31.1%
  • Labour 23.7%
  • Plaid Cymru 22.5%
  • Green 10.2%
  • Conservative 7.2%
  • Lib Dems 4.6%
  • Other 0.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Plaid Cymru Green
HereNeath and Swansea East 31.1%23.7%22.5%10.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +5.7 21.8% +1.9 1.2% +21.2 10.8% −0.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Neath and Swansea East, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Carolyn Harris

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
16.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Carolyn Harris Elected Labour 16,797 41.9 —
Dai Richards Reform UK 10,170 25.3 —
Andrew Jenkins Plaid Cymru 5,350 13.3 —
Samantha Chohan Conservative 3,765 9.4 —
Helen Clarke Lib Dems 2,344 5.8 —
Jan Dowden Green 1,711 4.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,765
Median age
41
Employment rate
74.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029