Riding profile
Neath and Swansea East
The question
Neath and Swansea East: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Neath and Swansea East, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Carolyn Harris
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Plaid Cymru | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNeath and Swansea East | 32.4% | 22.6% | 18.3% | 11.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +7.1 | 21.7% +1.0 | 1.0% +17.2 | 11.8% −0.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolyn Harris Elected | Labour | 16,797 | 41.9 | — |
| Dai Richards | Reform UK | 10,170 | 25.3 | — |
| Andrew Jenkins | Plaid Cymru | 5,350 | 13.3 | — |
| Samantha Chohan | Conservative | 3,765 | 9.4 | — |
| Helen Clarke | Lib Dems | 2,344 | 5.8 | — |
| Jan Dowden | Green | 1,711 | 4.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029