Riding profile

Llanelli

UK constituency — Wales · Mixed · wales

The question

Llanelli: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
1.9
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 31.5%
  • Plaid Cymru 29.6%
  • Labour 18.8%
  • Conservative 7.6%
  • Green 6.6%
  • Lib Dems 3.3%
  • Other 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Plaid Cymru Labour Conservative
HereLlanelli 31.5%29.6%18.8%7.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +6.1 1.2% +28.4 21.8% −3.0 19.3% −11.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Llanelli, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 30% for Plaid Cymru, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Dame Nia Griffith

Sits with Labour

Since
2005-05-05
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
3.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Nia Griffith Elected Labour 12,751 31.3 —
Gareth Beer Reform UK 11,247 27.6 —
Rhodri Davies Plaid Cymru 9,511 23.3 —
Charlie Evans Conservative 4,275 10.5 —
Chris Passmore Lib Dems 1,254 3.1 —
Karen Laurence Green 1,106 2.7 —
Stan Robinson Other 600 1.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,816
Median age
44
Employment rate
70.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029