Riding profile
Llanelli
The question
Llanelli: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Llanelli, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 27% for Plaid Cymru, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Dame Nia Griffith
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.2
- P(close race)
- 1%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Plaid Cymru | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLlanelli | 35.4% | 27.2% | 13.8% | 9.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +10.0 | 1.0% +26.1 | 21.7% −7.8 | 11.8% −2.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nia Griffith Elected | Labour | 12,751 | 31.3 | — |
| Gareth Beer | Reform UK | 11,247 | 27.6 | — |
| Rhodri Davies | Plaid Cymru | 9,511 | 23.3 | — |
| Charlie Evans | Conservative | 4,275 | 10.5 | — |
| Chris Passmore | Lib Dems | 1,254 | 3.1 | — |
| Karen Laurence | Green | 1,106 | 2.7 | — |
| Stan Robinson | Other | 600 | 1.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029