Riding profile

Caerfyrddin

UK constituency — Wales · Mixed · wales

The question

Caerfyrddin: a safe seat for Plaid Cymru?

Current forecast

Plaid Cymru

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Plaid Cymru 35.4%
  • Reform UK 23.2%
  • Conservative 14.2%
  • Labour 11.6%
  • Green 6.7%
  • Lib Dems 6.5%
  • Other 2.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Plaid Cymru Reform UK Conservative Labour
HereCaerfyrddin 35.4%23.2%14.2%11.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 1.2% +34.2 25.4% −2.2 19.3% −5.1 21.8% −10.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Caerfyrddin, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Plaid Cymru in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Plaid Cymru ahead at 35% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ann Davies

Sits with Plaid Cymru

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Plaid Cymru
Margin
9.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ann Davies Elected Plaid Cymru 15,520 34.0 —
Martha O'Neil Labour 10,985 24.1 —
Simon Hart Conservative 8,825 19.4 —
Bernard Holton Reform UK 6,944 15.2 —
Nick Beckett Lib Dems 1,461 3.2 —
Will Beasley Green 1,371 3.0 —
Nancy Cole Other 282 0.6 —
David Evans Other 216 0.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,301
Median age
49
Employment rate
73.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029