Riding profile
Caerfyrddin
The question
Caerfyrddin: a safe seat for Plaid Cymru?
Editorial read
Caerfyrddin, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Plaid Cymru in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Plaid Cymru ahead at 34% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Ann Davies
Sits with Plaid Cymru
Current forecast
Plaid Cymru
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Plaid Cymru | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCaerfyrddin | 34.4% | 24.2% | 13.7% | 11.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 1.0% +33.4 | 25.3% −1.1 | 18.9% −5.2 | 11.8% −0.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann Davies Elected | Plaid Cymru | 15,520 | 34.0 | — |
| Martha O'Neil | Labour | 10,985 | 24.1 | — |
| Simon Hart | Conservative | 8,825 | 19.4 | — |
| Bernard Holton | Reform UK | 6,944 | 15.2 | — |
| Nick Beckett | Lib Dems | 1,461 | 3.2 | — |
| Will Beasley | Green | 1,371 | 3.0 | — |
| Nancy Cole | Other | 282 | 0.6 | — |
| David Evans | Other | 216 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029