Riding profile

Ceredigion Preseli

UK constituency — Wales · Mixed · wales

The question

Ceredigion Preseli: a safe seat for Plaid Cymru?

Current forecast

Plaid Cymru

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
27.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Plaid Cymru 45.1%
  • Reform UK 18.1%
  • Lib Dems 15.3%
  • Green 7.5%
  • Conservative 6.8%
  • Labour 5.4%
  • Other 1.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Plaid Cymru Reform UK Lib Dems Green
HereCeredigion Preseli 45.1%18.1%15.3%7.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 1.2% +43.9 25.4% −7.3 11.4% +4.0 10.8% −3.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Ceredigion Preseli, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Plaid Cymru in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Plaid Cymru ahead at 45% vote share, against 18% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ben Lake

Sits with Plaid Cymru

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Plaid Cymru
Margin
31.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ben Lake Elected Plaid Cymru 21,738 47.0 —
Mark Williams Lib Dems 6,949 15.0 —
Jackie Jones Labour 5,386 11.6 —
Karl Pollard Reform UK 5,374 11.6 —
Aled Thomas Conservative 4,763 10.3 —
Tomos Barlow Green 1,864 4.0 —
Taghrid Al-Mawed Other 228 0.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,099
Median age
49
Employment rate
73.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029