Riding profile
Ceredigion Preseli
The question
Ceredigion Preseli: a safe seat for Plaid Cymru?
Editorial read
Ceredigion Preseli, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Plaid Cymru in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Plaid Cymru ahead at 42% vote share, against 18% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Ben Lake
Sits with Plaid Cymru
Current forecast
Plaid Cymru
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 24.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Plaid Cymru | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCeredigion Preseli | 41.9% | 17.7% | 14.7% | 12.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 1.0% +40.9 | 25.3% −7.6 | 11.6% +3.1 | 11.8% +0.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Lake Elected | Plaid Cymru | 21,738 | 47.0 | — |
| Mark Williams | Lib Dems | 6,949 | 15.0 | — |
| Jackie Jones | Labour | 5,386 | 11.6 | — |
| Karl Pollard | Reform UK | 5,374 | 11.6 | — |
| Aled Thomas | Conservative | 4,763 | 10.3 | — |
| Tomos Barlow | Green | 1,864 | 4.0 | — |
| Taghrid Al-Mawed | Other | 228 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029