Riding profile
Dwyfor Meirionnydd
The question
Dwyfor Meirionnydd: a safe seat for Plaid Cymru?
Current forecast
Plaid Cymru
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 34.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Plaid Cymru | Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDwyfor Meirionnydd | 52.3% | 17.7% | 8.4% | 7.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 1.2% +51.1 | 25.4% −7.6 | 21.8% −13.5 | 19.3% −11.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Dwyfor Meirionnydd, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Plaid Cymru in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Plaid Cymru ahead at 52% vote share, against 18% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Liz Saville Roberts
Sits with Plaid Cymru
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liz Saville Roberts Elected | Plaid Cymru | 21,788 | 53.9 | — |
| Joanna Stallard | Labour | 5,912 | 14.6 | — |
| Lucy Murphy | Reform UK | 4,857 | 12.0 | — |
| Tomos Day | Conservative | 4,712 | 11.7 | — |
| Karl Drinkwater | Green | 1,448 | 3.6 | — |
| Phoebe Jenkins | Lib Dems | 1,381 | 3.4 | — |
| Joan Ginsberg | Other | 297 | 0.7 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029