Riding profile
Dwyfor Meirionnydd
The question
Dwyfor Meirionnydd: a safe seat for Plaid Cymru?
Editorial read
Dwyfor Meirionnydd, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Plaid Cymru in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Plaid Cymru ahead at 47% vote share, against 20% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Liz Saville Roberts
Sits with Plaid Cymru
Current forecast
Plaid Cymru
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 26.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Plaid Cymru | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDwyfor Meirionnydd | 46.6% | 19.9% | 11.0% | 6.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 1.0% +45.6 | 25.3% −5.4 | 11.8% −0.8 | 18.9% −12.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liz Saville Roberts Elected | Plaid Cymru | 21,788 | 53.9 | — |
| Joanna Stallard | Labour | 5,912 | 14.6 | — |
| Lucy Murphy | Reform UK | 4,857 | 12.0 | — |
| Tomos Day | Conservative | 4,712 | 11.7 | — |
| Karl Drinkwater | Green | 1,448 | 3.6 | — |
| Phoebe Jenkins | Lib Dems | 1,381 | 3.4 | — |
| Joan Ginsberg | Other | 297 | 0.7 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029