Riding profile

Bangor Aberconwy

UK constituency — Wales · Mixed · wales

The question

Bangor Aberconwy: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
3.1
P(close race)
98%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 26.0%
  • Plaid Cymru 22.9%
  • Labour 20.8%
  • Conservative 15.6%
  • Green 8.0%
  • Lib Dems 4.2%
  • Other 2.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Plaid Cymru Labour Conservative
HereBangor Aberconwy 26.0%22.9%20.8%15.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +0.6 1.2% +21.7 21.8% −1.0 19.3% −3.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Bangor Aberconwy, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 26% vote share, against 23% for Plaid Cymru, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Claire Hughes

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
11.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Claire Hughes Elected Labour 14,008 33.6 —
Catrin Wager Plaid Cymru 9,112 21.9 —
Robin Millar Conservative 9,036 21.7 —
John Clark Reform UK 6,091 14.6 —
Rachael Roberts Lib Dems 1,524 3.7 —
Petra Haig Green 1,361 3.3 —
Kathrine Jones Other 424 1.0 —
Steve Marshall Other 104 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
92,628
Median age
45
Employment rate
70.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029