Riding profile

Bangor Aberconwy

UK constituency — Wales · Mixed · wales

The question

Bangor Aberconwy: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Bangor Aberconwy, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Plaid Cymru ahead at 24% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Claire Hughes

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Plaid Cymru

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
2.4
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Plaid Cymru 24.2%
  • Reform UK 21.9%
  • Conservative 17.3%
  • Labour 17.0%
  • Green 11.1%
  • Lib Dems 4.9%
  • Other 3.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Plaid Cymru Reform UK Conservative Labour
HereBangor Aberconwy 24.2%21.9%17.3%17.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 1.0% +23.1 25.3% −3.5 18.9% −1.6 21.7% −4.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
11.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Claire Hughes Elected Labour 14,008 33.6
Catrin Wager Plaid Cymru 9,112 21.9
Robin Millar Conservative 9,036 21.7
John Clark Reform UK 6,091 14.6
Rachael Roberts Lib Dems 1,524 3.7
Petra Haig Green 1,361 3.3
Kathrine Jones Other 424 1.0
Steve Marshall Other 104 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
92,628
Median age
45
Employment rate
70.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029