Riding profile

Wirral West

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Wirral West: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Wirral West, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 31% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Matthew Patrick

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.1
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 31.2%
  • Reform UK 24.5%
  • Conservative 21.8%
  • Green 14.9%
  • Lib Dems 6.3%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereWirral West 31.2%24.5%21.8%14.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +9.5 25.3% −0.8 18.9% +2.9 11.8% +3.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
20.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Matthew Patrick Elected Labour 23,156 46.4 —
Jenny Johnson Conservative 13,158 26.3 —
Ken Ferguson Reform UK 6,422 12.9 —
Gail Jenkinson Green 4,160 8.3 —
Peter Reisdorf Lib Dems 3,055 6.1 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
88,387
Median age
50
Employment rate
77.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029