Riding profile

Wirral West

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Wirral West: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 33.8%
  • Reform UK 26.8%
  • Conservative 21.2%
  • Green 10.0%
  • Lib Dems 6.9%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereWirral West 33.8%26.8%21.2%10.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +12.0 25.4% +1.4 19.3% +1.9 10.8% −0.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Wirral West, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 34% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Matthew Patrick

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
20.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Matthew Patrick Elected Labour 23,156 46.4 —
Jenny Johnson Conservative 13,158 26.3 —
Ken Ferguson Reform UK 6,422 12.9 —
Gail Jenkinson Green 4,160 8.3 —
Peter Reisdorf Lib Dems 3,055 6.1 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
88,387
Median age
50
Employment rate
77.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029