Riding profile

Alyn and Deeside

UK constituency — Wales · Mixed · wales

The question

Alyn and Deeside: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.5
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 31.0%
  • Labour 23.5%
  • Conservative 14.3%
  • Plaid Cymru 12.8%
  • Green 9.7%
  • Other 4.4%
  • Lib Dems 4.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru
HereAlyn and Deeside 31.0%23.5%14.3%12.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +5.6 21.8% +1.6 19.3% −5.1 1.2% +11.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Alyn and Deeside, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sir Mark Tami

Sits with Labour

Since
2001-06-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
20.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mark Tami Elected Labour 18,395 42.4 —
Vicki Roskams Reform UK 9,601 22.1 —
Jeremy Kent Conservative 7,892 18.2 —
Richard Marbrow Lib Dems 2,065 4.8 —
Jack Morris Plaid Cymru 1,938 4.5 —
Karl Macnaughton Green 1,926 4.4 —
Edwin Duggan Other 1,575 3.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
102,432
Median age
42
Employment rate
76.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029