Riding profile
Alyn and Deeside
The question
Alyn and Deeside: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Alyn and Deeside, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sir Mark Tami
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAlyn and Deeside | 30.9% | 22.8% | 14.6% | 11.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +5.5 | 21.7% +1.1 | 18.9% −4.3 | 11.8% −0.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Tami Elected | Labour | 18,395 | 42.4 | — |
| Vicki Roskams | Reform UK | 9,601 | 22.1 | — |
| Jeremy Kent | Conservative | 7,892 | 18.2 | — |
| Richard Marbrow | Lib Dems | 2,065 | 4.8 | — |
| Jack Morris | Plaid Cymru | 1,938 | 4.5 | — |
| Karl Macnaughton | Green | 1,926 | 4.4 | — |
| Edwin Duggan | Other | 1,575 | 3.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029