Riding profile
Ellesmere Port and Bromborough
The question
Ellesmere Port and Bromborough: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEllesmere Port and Bromborough | 40.3% | 29.9% | 10.7% | 9.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +18.5 | 25.4% +4.6 | 19.3% −8.6 | 10.8% −1.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Ellesmere Port and Bromborough, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 40% vote share, against 30% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Justin Madders
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Madders Elected | Labour | 24,186 | 57.6 | — |
| Michael Alreed | Reform UK | 7,278 | 17.3 | — |
| Lee Evans | Conservative | 5,210 | 12.4 | — |
| Harry Gorman | Green | 2,706 | 6.5 | — |
| Chris Carubia | Lib Dems | 2,328 | 5.5 | — |
| Ruth Boulton | Other | 256 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029