Riding profile

Liverpool West Derby

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Liverpool West Derby: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Liverpool West Derby, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 54-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 46% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ian Byrne

Sits with Labour

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 46.1%
  • Reform UK 23.1%
  • Green 14.1%
  • Other 6.3%
  • Lib Dems 5.8%
  • Conservative 4.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Green Other
HereLiverpool West Derby 46.1%23.1%14.1%6.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +24.4 25.3% −2.2 11.8% +2.2 4.8% +1.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
53.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-33.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ian Byrne Elected Labour 25,302 66.6
Jack Boyd Reform UK 4,879 12.8
Maria Coughlan Green 2,647 7.0
Steve Radford Other 2,336 6.2
Charlotte Duthie Conservative 1,566 4.1
Kayleigh Halpin Lib Dems 1,276 3.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
98,772
Median age
39
Employment rate
67.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029