Riding profile

Liverpool Walton

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Liverpool Walton: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 51.3%
  • Reform UK 26.9%
  • Green 10.4%
  • Conservative 4.8%
  • Lib Dems 3.7%
  • Other 2.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Green Conservative
HereLiverpool Walton 51.3%26.9%10.4%4.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +29.5 25.4% +1.5 10.8% −0.4 19.3% −14.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Liverpool Walton, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 55-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 51% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dan Carden

Sits with Labour

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
54.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-30.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Dan Carden Elected Labour 26,032 70.6
Joe Doran Reform UK 5,787 15.7
Martyn Madeley Green 2,388 6.5
Emma Ware Conservative 1,282 3.5
Sean Cadwallader Lib Dems 945 2.6
Billy Lake Other 452 1.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,915
Median age
38
Employment rate
71.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029