Monday, November 2, 2026
U.S. midterms in 1 day

Liverpool Riverside

Westminster constituency · England · North West

Forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 51.3%
  • Green 19.9%
  • Reform UK 17.2%
  • Other 4.4%
  • Lib Dems 4.0%
  • Conservative 2.9%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

Labour Green Reform UK Other
Liverpool Riverside 51.3%19.9%17.2%4.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 26.5%+24.8 9.7%+10.3 22.3%−5.1 5.1%−0.8

Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.

Local profile

Population123,703
Median age28
Employment rate66.5%

Source: Office for National Statistics: mid-2022 population, January 2026 labour market

Current member

Kim Johnson · Labour

In office since December 12, 2019. 59th Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

Labour won by 45.7 points.

Our current projection: Labour ahead by 31.3 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate Party Votes %
Kim Johnson Elected Labour 20,039 61.9
Chris Coughlan Green 5,246 16.2
Gary Hincks Reform UK 3,272 10.1
Rebecca Turner Lib Dems 1,544 4.8
Jane Austin Conservative 1,155 3.6
Roger Bannister Other 622 1.9
Sean Weaver Other 256 0.8
Stephen McNally Other 247 0.8

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

  1. Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shireSNP76%1.2-point gap
  2. Bury St Edmunds and StowmarketReform UK46%1.4-point gap
  3. Romsey and Southampton NorthConservative63%1.4-point gap
Forecast updated