Riding profile

Liverpool Riverside

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Liverpool Riverside: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 45.3%
  • Green 24.6%
  • Reform UK 18.7%
  • Other 4.8%
  • Lib Dems 4.0%
  • Conservative 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Other
HereLiverpool Riverside 45.3%24.6%18.7%4.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +23.5 10.8% +13.8 25.4% −6.7 5.0% −0.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Liverpool Riverside, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 46-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 45% vote share, against 25% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Kim Johnson

Sits with Labour

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
45.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-25.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kim Johnson Elected Labour 20,039 61.9 —
Chris Coughlan Green 5,246 16.2 —
Gary Hincks Reform UK 3,272 10.1 —
Rebecca Turner Lib Dems 1,544 4.8 —
Jane Austin Conservative 1,155 3.6 —
Roger Bannister Other 622 1.9 —
Sean Weaver Other 256 0.8 —
Stephen McNally Other 247 0.8 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
123,703
Median age
28
Employment rate
66.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029