Riding profile

Bootle

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Bootle: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Bootle, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 57-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 46% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Peter Dowd

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 46.4%
  • Reform UK 24.3%
  • Green 16.6%
  • Lib Dems 5.8%
  • Conservative 4.0%
  • Other 2.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Green Lib Dems
HereBootle 46.4%24.3%16.6%5.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +24.7 25.3% −1.1 11.8% +4.8 11.6% −5.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
56.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-36.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Peter Dowd Elected Labour 26,729 68.8
Darren Burns Reform UK 4,746 12.2
Neil Doolin Green 3,904 10.0
Rowena Bass Conservative 1,674 4.3
John Gibson Lib Dems 1,301 3.4
Ian Smith Other 526 1.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,709
Median age
40
Employment rate
67.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029