Riding profile
Bootle
The question
Bootle: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 24.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBootle | 49.4% | 25.3% | 12.8% | 4.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +27.6 | 25.4% −0.1 | 10.8% +2.0 | 19.3% −14.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Bootle, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 57-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 49% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Peter Dowd
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Dowd Elected | Labour | 26,729 | 68.8 | — |
| Darren Burns | Reform UK | 4,746 | 12.2 | — |
| Neil Doolin | Green | 3,904 | 10.0 | — |
| Rowena Bass | Conservative | 1,674 | 4.3 | — |
| John Gibson | Lib Dems | 1,301 | 3.4 | — |
| Ian Smith | Other | 526 | 1.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029