Riding profile
Sefton Central
The question
Sefton Central: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSefton Central | 39.6% | 27.1% | 13.2% | 10.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +17.8 | 25.4% +1.8 | 19.3% −6.1 | 10.8% −0.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Sefton Central, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 40% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Bill Esterson
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Esterson Elected | Labour | 26,772 | 56.4 | — |
| Marcus Bleasdale | Conservative | 8,490 | 17.9 | — |
| Nagender Chindam | Reform UK | 5,767 | 12.2 | — |
| Kieran Dams | Green | 3,294 | 6.9 | — |
| Gareth Lloyd-Johnson | Lib Dems | 2,630 | 5.5 | — |
| Ralph James | Other | 496 | 1.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029