Riding profile
Sefton Central
The question
Sefton Central: a safe seat for Labour?
Editorial read
Sefton Central, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 36% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Bill Esterson
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSefton Central | 36.4% | 26.0% | 14.5% | 12.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +14.7 | 25.3% +0.7 | 11.8% +2.7 | 18.9% −5.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Esterson Elected | Labour | 26,772 | 56.4 | — |
| Marcus Bleasdale | Conservative | 8,490 | 17.9 | — |
| Nagender Chindam | Reform UK | 5,767 | 12.2 | — |
| Kieran Dams | Green | 3,294 | 6.9 | — |
| Gareth Lloyd-Johnson | Lib Dems | 2,630 | 5.5 | — |
| Ralph James | Other | 496 | 1.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029