Riding profile

Wallasey

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Wallasey: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 41.6%
  • Reform UK 29.4%
  • Green 11.0%
  • Conservative 9.9%
  • Lib Dems 5.1%
  • Other 2.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Green Conservative
HereWallasey 41.6%29.4%11.0%9.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +19.8 25.4% +4.0 10.8% +0.2 19.3% −9.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Wallasey, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 42-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 42% vote share, against 29% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dame Angela Eagle

Sits with Labour

Since
1992-04-09
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
42.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-29.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Angela Eagle Elected Labour 24,674 57.7
David Burgess-Joyce Reform UK 6,678 15.6
Robbie Lammas Conservative 4,987 11.7
Jane Turner Green 3,905 9.1
Vicky Downie Lib Dems 1,843 4.3
Philip Bimpson Other 462 1.1
Ian Pugh Other 197 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
96,852
Median age
43
Employment rate
76.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029