Riding profile

Birkenhead

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Birkenhead: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Birkenhead, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 33% vote share, against 31% for the Green Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Alison McGovern

Sits with Labour

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 33.2%
  • Green 31.1%
  • Reform UK 20.4%
  • Conservative 6.4%
  • Lib Dems 5.7%
  • Other 2.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Conservative
HereBirkenhead 33.2%31.1%20.4%6.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +11.6 11.8% +19.3 25.3% −4.9 18.9% −12.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
32.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-31.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alison McGovern Elected Labour 22,468 52.1
Jo Bird Green 8,670 20.1
Tony Stanley Reform UK 6,142 14.2
Sarah Payne Conservative 3,238 7.5
Stuart Kelly Lib Dems 2,292 5.3
Catherine Evans Other 324 0.8

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
106,281
Median age
41
Employment rate
69.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029