Riding profile
Birkenhead
The question
Birkenhead: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBirkenhead | 38.3% | 23.7% | 22.4% | 7.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +16.5 | 25.4% −1.6 | 10.8% +11.6 | 19.3% −12.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Birkenhead, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 38% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Alison McGovern
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alison McGovern Elected | Labour | 22,468 | 52.1 | — |
| Jo Bird | Green | 8,670 | 20.1 | — |
| Tony Stanley | Reform UK | 6,142 | 14.2 | — |
| Sarah Payne | Conservative | 3,238 | 7.5 | — |
| Stuart Kelly | Lib Dems | 2,292 | 5.3 | — |
| Catherine Evans | Other | 324 | 0.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029