Riding profile

Liverpool Wavertree

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Liverpool Wavertree: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Liverpool Wavertree, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 41-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 42% vote share, against 26% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Paula Barker

Sits with Labour

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 41.7%
  • Green 25.8%
  • Reform UK 16.3%
  • Lib Dems 7.7%
  • Other 4.7%
  • Conservative 3.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Lib Dems
HereLiverpool Wavertree 41.7%25.8%16.3%7.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +20.0 11.8% +14.0 25.3% −9.0 11.6% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
41.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-27.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Paula Barker Elected Labour 23,077 58.0
Tom Crone Green 6,773 17.0
Adam Heatherington Reform UK 3,454 8.7
Rob McAllister-Bell Lib Dems 2,759 6.9
Charlotte Eagar Conservative 1,887 4.7
Ann San Other 1,191 3.0
Mohamed El Gadhy Other 566 1.4
Joe Owens Other 108 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
105,388
Median age
33
Employment rate
78.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029