Riding profile

Liverpool Wavertree

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Liverpool Wavertree: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 44.7%
  • Green 22.9%
  • Reform UK 16.5%
  • Other 6.4%
  • Lib Dems 6.0%
  • Conservative 3.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Other
HereLiverpool Wavertree 44.7%22.9%16.5%6.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +22.9 10.8% +12.1 25.4% −8.9 5.0% +1.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Liverpool Wavertree, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 41-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 45% vote share, against 23% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Paula Barker

Sits with Labour

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
41.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Paula Barker Elected Labour 23,077 58.0 —
Tom Crone Green 6,773 17.0 —
Adam Heatherington Reform UK 3,454 8.7 —
Rob McAllister-Bell Lib Dems 2,759 6.9 —
Charlotte Eagar Conservative 1,887 4.7 —
Ann San Other 1,191 3.0 —
Mohamed El Gadhy Other 566 1.4 —
Joe Owens Other 108 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
105,388
Median age
33
Employment rate
78.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029