Riding profile

Knowsley

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Knowsley: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 49.2%
  • Reform UK 28.5%
  • Green 10.3%
  • Conservative 4.8%
  • Lib Dems 4.3%
  • Other 2.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Green Conservative
HereKnowsley 49.2%28.5%10.3%4.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +27.4 25.4% +3.1 10.8% −0.5 19.3% −14.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Knowsley, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 51-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 49% vote share, against 29% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Anneliese Midgley

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
50.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-30.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Anneliese Midgley Elected Labour 24,243 67.3 —
Alexander Hitchmough Reform UK 5,924 16.4 —
Graham Wickens Green 2,772 7.7 —
Sherrie McDaid Conservative 1,496 4.2 —
Kate Tipton Lib Dems 1,232 3.4 —
Graham Padden Other 245 0.7 —
Patricia Jameson Other 135 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,466
Median age
38
Employment rate
67.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029