Riding profile

West Lancashire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

West Lancashire: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.8
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 33.5%
  • Reform UK 32.7%
  • Conservative 14.1%
  • Green 12.6%
  • Lib Dems 5.7%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereWest Lancashire 33.5%32.7%14.1%12.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +11.7 25.4% +7.4 19.3% −5.2 10.8% +1.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

West Lancashire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 33% vote share, against 33% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Ashley Dalton

Sits with Labour

Since
2023-02-09
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
30.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-30.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ashley Dalton Elected Labour 22,305 50.5 —
Mike Prendergast Conservative 8,680 19.6 —
Simon Evans Reform UK 7,909 17.9 —
Charlotte Houltram Green 3,263 7.4 —
Graham Smith Lib Dems 2,043 4.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,950
Median age
43
Employment rate
76.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029