Riding profile
West Lancashire
The question
West Lancashire: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
West Lancashire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 32% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Ashley Dalton
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.8
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWest Lancashire | 32.6% | 31.6% | 13.7% | 13.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +7.3 | 21.7% +10.0 | 11.8% +1.9 | 18.9% −5.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Dalton Elected | Labour | 22,305 | 50.5 | — |
| Mike Prendergast | Conservative | 8,680 | 19.6 | — |
| Simon Evans | Reform UK | 7,909 | 17.9 | — |
| Charlotte Houltram | Green | 3,263 | 7.4 | — |
| Graham Smith | Lib Dems | 2,043 | 4.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029