Riding profile

Southport

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Southport: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 30.0%
  • Labour 24.7%
  • Conservative 20.1%
  • Lib Dems 12.5%
  • Green 8.2%
  • Other 4.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Lib Dems
HereSouthport 30.0%24.7%20.1%12.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +4.7 21.8% +2.9 19.3% +0.8 11.4% +1.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Southport, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Patrick Hurley

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
12.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Patrick Hurley Elected Labour 17,252 38.3 —
Damien Moore Conservative 11,463 25.4 —
Andrew Lynn Reform UK 7,395 16.4 —
Erin Harvey Lib Dems 5,868 13.0 —
Edwin Black Green 2,159 4.8 —
Sean Halsall Other 922 2.0 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
98,239
Median age
48
Employment rate
82.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029