Riding profile
Southport
The question
Southport: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Southport, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Patrick Hurley
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouthport | 29.3% | 24.9% | 20.6% | 12.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.0 | 21.7% +3.2 | 18.9% +1.7 | 11.6% +0.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Hurley Elected | Labour | 17,252 | 38.3 | — |
| Damien Moore | Conservative | 11,463 | 25.4 | — |
| Andrew Lynn | Reform UK | 7,395 | 16.4 | — |
| Erin Harvey | Lib Dems | 5,868 | 13.0 | — |
| Edwin Black | Green | 2,159 | 4.8 | — |
| Sean Halsall | Other | 922 | 2.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029