Riding profile

Chorley

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Chorley: will Speaker lose this seat to Other?

Editorial read

Chorley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with another party in the previous cycle, with a 73-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another party ahead at 75% vote share, against 16% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sir Lindsay Hoyle

Sits with Speaker

Since
1997-05-01
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Other

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
59.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 75.2%
  • Green 16.0%
  • Reform UK 8.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Green Reform UK SNP
HereChorley 75.2%16.0%8.2%0.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 4.8% +70.4 11.8% +4.2 25.3% −17.1 2.5% −2.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Other
Margin
72.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lindsay Hoyle Elected Other 25,238 74.3
Mark Tebbutt Green 4,663 13.7
Ben Holden-Crowther Other 2,424 7.1
Graham Moore Other 1,007 3.0
Martin Powell-Davies Other 632 1.9

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,709
Median age
43
Employment rate
82.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029