Riding profile
Wigan
The question
Wigan: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Wigan, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 38% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Lisa Nandy
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Green | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWigan | 37.8% | 28.4% | 10.1% | 8.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +12.5 | 21.7% +6.8 | 11.8% −1.7 | 4.8% +4.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Nandy Elected | Labour | 19,401 | 47.4 | — |
| Andy Dawber | Reform UK | 9,852 | 24.1 | — |
| Henry Mitson | Conservative | 4,310 | 10.5 | — |
| Maureen O'Bern | Other | 3,522 | 8.6 | — |
| Brian Crombie-Fisher | Lib Dems | 1,692 | 4.1 | — |
| Jane Leicester | Green | 1,629 | 4.0 | — |
| Jan Cunliffe | Other | 406 | 1.0 | — |
| The Zok | Other | 87 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029