Riding profile
Wigan
The question
Wigan: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.4
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Other | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWigan | 35.7% | 32.3% | 9.6% | 8.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +10.4 | 21.8% +10.5 | 5.0% +4.5 | 19.3% −10.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Wigan, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 36% vote share, against 32% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Lisa Nandy
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Nandy Elected | Labour | 19,401 | 47.4 | — |
| Andy Dawber | Reform UK | 9,852 | 24.1 | — |
| Henry Mitson | Conservative | 4,310 | 10.5 | — |
| Maureen O'Bern | Other | 3,522 | 8.6 | — |
| Brian Crombie-Fisher | Lib Dems | 1,692 | 4.1 | — |
| Jane Leicester | Green | 1,629 | 4.0 | — |
| Jan Cunliffe | Other | 406 | 1.0 | — |
| The Zok | Other | 87 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029