Riding profile

Leigh and Atherton

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Leigh and Atherton: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 39.5%
  • Labour 31.9%
  • Conservative 12.6%
  • Green 7.5%
  • Lib Dems 5.4%
  • Other 2.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereLeigh and Atherton 39.5%31.9%12.6%7.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +14.2 21.8% +10.1 19.3% −6.7 10.8% −3.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Leigh and Atherton, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 40% vote share, against 32% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jo Platt

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
21.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jo Platt Elected Labour 19,971 48.5
George Woodward Reform UK 11,090 26.9
Michael Winstanley Conservative 6,483 15.8
Amelia Jones Green 1,653 4.0
Stuart Thomas Lib Dems 1,597 3.9
Craig Buckley Other 376 0.9

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
110,496
Median age
40
Employment rate
68.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029