Riding profile
Warrington South
The question
Warrington South: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.7
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWarrington South | 31.5% | 28.8% | 19.3% | 9.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +9.7 | 25.4% +3.4 | 19.3% −0.1 | 11.4% −2.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Warrington South, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 31% vote share, against 29% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sarah Hall
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Hall Elected | Labour | 23,201 | 46.7 | — |
| Andy Carter | Conservative | 11,861 | 23.9 | — |
| Janet Balfe | Reform UK | 7,913 | 15.9 | — |
| Graham Gowland | Lib Dems | 3,829 | 7.7 | — |
| Stephanie Davies | Green | 2,313 | 4.7 | — |
| Peter Willett | Other | 445 | 0.9 | — |
| Graeme Kelly | Other | 110 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029