Riding profile
Warrington South
The question
Warrington South: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Warrington South, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 30% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sarah Hall
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.7
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWarrington South | 29.6% | 29.5% | 19.0% | 9.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.3 | 21.7% +7.9 | 18.9% +0.1 | 11.8% −2.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Hall Elected | Labour | 23,201 | 46.7 | — |
| Andy Carter | Conservative | 11,861 | 23.9 | — |
| Janet Balfe | Reform UK | 7,913 | 15.9 | — |
| Graham Gowland | Lib Dems | 3,829 | 7.7 | — |
| Stephanie Davies | Green | 2,313 | 4.7 | — |
| Peter Willett | Other | 445 | 0.9 | — |
| Graeme Kelly | Other | 110 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029