Riding profile

Mid Cheshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Mid Cheshire: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Editorial read

Mid Cheshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Andrew Cooper

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 33.1%
  • Labour 26.7%
  • Conservative 17.9%
  • Green 10.0%
  • Lib Dems 8.5%
  • Other 3.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereMid Cheshire 33.1%26.7%17.9%10.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +7.8 21.7% +5.1 18.9% −1.0 11.8% −1.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
21.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Andrew Cooper Elected Labour 18,457 44.5
Charles Fifield Conservative 9,530 23.0
Emma Guy Reform UK 7,967 19.2
Jack Price-Harbach Lib Dems 2,465 5.9
Mark Green Green 1,967 4.7
Helen Clawson Other 850 2.0
Stella Mellor Other 273 0.7

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,182
Median age
41
Employment rate
84.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029