Riding profile

Mid Cheshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Mid Cheshire: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 32.6%
  • Labour 28.6%
  • Conservative 18.3%
  • Green 9.4%
  • Lib Dems 6.9%
  • Other 3.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereMid Cheshire 32.6%28.6%18.3%9.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +7.3 21.8% +6.8 19.3% −1.1 10.8% −1.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Mid Cheshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Andrew Cooper

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
21.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-17.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Andrew Cooper Elected Labour 18,457 44.5 —
Charles Fifield Conservative 9,530 23.0 —
Emma Guy Reform UK 7,967 19.2 —
Jack Price-Harbach Lib Dems 2,465 5.9 —
Mark Green Green 1,967 4.7 —
Helen Clawson Other 850 2.0 —
Stella Mellor Other 273 0.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,182
Median age
41
Employment rate
84.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029