Riding profile

Chester South and Eddisbury

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Chester South and Eddisbury: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.9
P(close race)
77%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 30.7%
  • Reform UK 25.8%
  • Labour 20.0%
  • Lib Dems 10.1%
  • Green 9.1%
  • Other 4.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Lib Dems
HereChester South and Eddisbury 30.7%25.8%20.0%10.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +11.4 25.4% +0.4 21.8% −1.8 11.4% −1.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Chester South and Eddisbury, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Aphra Brandreth

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
5.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Aphra Brandreth Elected Conservative 19,905 37.9
Angeliki Stogia Labour 16,848 32.1
Peter Langley Reform UK 6,414 12.2
Rob Herd Lib Dems 5,430 10.3
Steve Davies Green 2,278 4.3
Gillian Edwards Other 1,611 3.1

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,656
Median age
48
Employment rate
78.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029