Riding profile
Crewe and Nantwich
The question
Crewe and Nantwich: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCrewe and Nantwich | 34.6% | 27.3% | 18.4% | 9.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +9.3 | 21.8% +5.5 | 19.3% −0.9 | 10.8% −1.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Crewe and Nantwich, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Connor Naismith
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Naismith Elected | Labour | 20,837 | 44.1 | — |
| Ben Fletcher | Conservative | 11,110 | 23.5 | — |
| Matt Wood | Reform UK | 9,602 | 20.3 | — |
| Matthew Theobald | Lib Dems | 2,286 | 4.8 | — |
| Te Ata Browne | Green | 2,151 | 4.6 | — |
| Brian Silvester | Other | 588 | 1.3 | — |
| Phil Lane | Other | 373 | 0.8 | — |
| Lord Psychobilly Tractor | Other | 250 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029