Riding profile
Stoke-on-Trent North
The question
Stoke-on-Trent North: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Stoke-on-Trent North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 38% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
David Williams
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereStoke-on-Trent North | 37.5% | 23.6% | 21.5% | 7.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +12.2 | 21.7% +1.9 | 18.9% +2.6 | 11.8% −4.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Williams Elected | Labour | 14,579 | 40.3 | — |
| Jonathan Gullis | Conservative | 9,497 | 26.3 | — |
| Karl Beresford | Reform UK | 8,824 | 24.4 | — |
| Josh Harris | Green | 1,236 | 3.4 | — |
| Jag Boyapati | Other | 1,103 | 3.0 | — |
| Lucy Hurds | Lib Dems | 911 | 2.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029