Stoke-on-Trent North
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 91% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 73%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke-on-Trent North | 34.2% | 30.8% | 21.3% | 6.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 22.3%+12.0 | 26.5%+4.3 | 20.0%+1.3 | 9.7%−3.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,899 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 70.5% |
Current member
David Williams · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 14.1 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 3.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Williams Elected | Labour | 14,579 | 40.3 |
| Jonathan Gullis | Conservative | 9,497 | 26.3 |
| Karl Beresford | Reform UK | 8,824 | 24.4 |
| Josh Harris | Green | 1,236 | 3.4 |
| Jag Boyapati | Other | 1,103 | 3.1 |
| Lucy Hurds | Lib Dems | 911 | 2.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stoke-on-Trent Central Labour, toss-up
- Newcastle-under-Lyme Reform UK, toss-up
- Congleton Labour, toss-up
- Stoke-on-Trent South Reform UK, toss-up
- Macclesfield Labour, safe seat
- Staffordshire Moorlands Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated