Riding profile

Congleton

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Congleton: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.1
P(close race)
30%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 30.6%
  • Conservative 25.5%
  • Labour 22.0%
  • Green 8.5%
  • Lib Dems 6.7%
  • Other 6.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereCongleton 30.6%25.5%22.0%8.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +5.2 19.3% +6.2 21.8% +0.2 10.8% −2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Congleton, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Sarah Russell

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
6.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sarah Russell Elected Labour 18,875 37.7 —
Fiona Bruce Conservative 15,488 30.9 —
Martin York Reform UK 8,245 16.4 —
Paul Duffy Lib Dems 2,785 5.6 —
Rob Moreton Other 2,181 4.3 —
Richard McCarthy Green 2,007 4.0 —
Kay Wesley Other 544 1.1 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
92,687
Median age
46
Employment rate
77.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029