Riding profile
Congleton
The question
Congleton: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Congleton, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sarah Russell
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.3
- P(close race)
- 7%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCongleton | 30.4% | 25.0% | 22.2% | 8.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +5.1 | 18.9% +6.1 | 21.7% +0.5 | 11.8% −3.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Russell Elected | Labour | 18,875 | 37.7 | — |
| Fiona Bruce | Conservative | 15,488 | 30.9 | — |
| Martin York | Reform UK | 8,245 | 16.4 | — |
| Paul Duffy | Lib Dems | 2,785 | 5.6 | — |
| Rob Moreton | Other | 2,181 | 4.3 | — |
| Richard McCarthy | Green | 2,007 | 4.0 | — |
| Kay Wesley | Other | 544 | 1.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029