Riding profile

Macclesfield

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Macclesfield: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Macclesfield, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 29% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Tim Roca

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 28.7%
  • Reform UK 26.8%
  • Conservative 24.0%
  • Green 10.7%
  • Lib Dems 6.7%
  • Other 2.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereMacclesfield 28.7%26.8%24.0%10.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +7.1 25.3% +1.5 18.9% +5.1 11.8% −1.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
17.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-16.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tim Roca Elected Labour 24,672 46.7
David Rutley Conservative 15,552 29.5
Steve Broadhurst Reform UK 6,592 12.5
Amanda Iremonger Green 2,493 4.7
Neil Christian Lib Dems 2,482 4.7
Christopher Wellavize Other 779 1.5
Dickie Fletcher Other 222 0.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
96,300
Median age
47
Employment rate
73.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029