Riding profile

Stockport

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Stockport: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 37.7%
  • Reform UK 25.5%
  • Green 13.0%
  • Conservative 9.5%
  • Lib Dems 8.4%
  • Other 5.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Green Conservative
HereStockport 37.7%25.5%13.0%9.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +15.9 25.4% +0.1 10.8% +2.2 19.3% −9.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Stockport, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 38% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Navendu Mishra

Sits with Labour

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
35.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Navendu Mishra Elected Labour 21,787 49.9
Lynn Schofield Reform UK 6,517 14.9
Oliver Johnstone Conservative 4,967 11.4
Helena Mellish Green 4,865 11.1
Wendy Meikle Lib Dems 3,724 8.5
Ayesha Khan Other 1,630 3.7
Ashley Walker Other 193 0.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
105,286
Median age
38
Employment rate
72.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029