Riding profile
Manchester Central
The question
Manchester Central: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereManchester Central | 38.0% | 23.5% | 19.1% | 6.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +16.2 | 10.8% +12.7 | 25.4% −6.3 | 11.4% −4.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Manchester Central, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 38% vote share, against 23% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Lucy Powell
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Powell Elected | Labour | 20,184 | 50.8 | — |
| Ekua Bayunu | Green | 6,387 | 16.1 | — |
| David Brown | Reform UK | 4,760 | 12.0 | — |
| Chris Northwood | Lib Dems | 3,051 | 7.7 | — |
| Scott Smith | Conservative | 2,823 | 7.1 | — |
| Parham Hashemi | Other | 1,888 | 4.8 | — |
| Sebastian Moore | Other | 240 | 0.6 | — |
| Sabeena Khan | Other | 202 | 0.5 | — |
| Caitriona Rylance | Other | 131 | 0.3 | — |
| Albati Kalonda | Other | 59 | 0.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029