Riding profile
Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton
The question
Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 22% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jim McMahon
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Other | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOldham West, Chadderton and Royton | 31.4% | 22.0% | 20.9% | 11.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +6.0 | 4.8% +17.2 | 21.7% −0.7 | 11.8% −0.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim McMahon Elected | Labour | 13,232 | 34.3 | — |
| Zaffar Iqbal | Other | 8,256 | 21.4 | — |
| David Silbiger | Reform UK | 6,848 | 17.8 | — |
| Horatio Lovering | Conservative | 4,066 | 10.5 | — |
| Raja Miah | Other | 2,470 | 6.4 | — |
| Samsuzzaman Syed | Green | 1,857 | 4.8 | — |
| Hannah Kitching | Lib Dems | 1,271 | 3.3 | — |
| Tony Wilson | Other | 573 | 1.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029