Riding profile
Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton
The question
Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.1
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Other | Labour | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOldham West, Chadderton and Royton | 28.0% | 24.8% | 24.7% | 9.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +2.7 | 5.0% +19.8 | 21.8% +2.9 | 19.3% −9.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 25% for another party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Jim McMahon
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim McMahon Elected | Labour | 13,232 | 34.3 | — |
| Zaffar Iqbal | Other | 8,256 | 21.4 | — |
| David Silbiger | Reform UK | 6,848 | 17.8 | — |
| Horatio Lovering | Conservative | 4,066 | 10.5 | — |
| Raja Miah | Other | 2,470 | 6.4 | — |
| Samsuzzaman Syed | Green | 1,857 | 4.8 | — |
| Hannah Kitching | Lib Dems | 1,271 | 3.3 | — |
| Tony Wilson | Other | 573 | 1.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029