Riding profile
Rochdale
The question
Rochdale: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Rochdale, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 22% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Paul Waugh
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Other | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRochdale | 29.8% | 21.5% | 21.4% | 9.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.4 | 4.8% +16.8 | 21.7% −0.3 | 11.8% −2.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Waugh Elected | Labour | 13,027 | 32.8 | — |
| George Galloway | Other | 11,587 | 29.2 | — |
| Michael Howard | Reform UK | 6,773 | 17.1 | — |
| Paul Ellison | Conservative | 4,273 | 10.8 | — |
| Andy Kelly | Lib Dems | 2,816 | 7.1 | — |
| Martyn Savin | Green | 1,212 | 3.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Oldham West, Chadderton and RoytonReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Oldham East and SaddleworthReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Heywood and Middleton NorthReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Blackley and Middleton SouthLabour Toss-upOpen →
- Ashton-under-LyneReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Manchester CentralLabour Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029