Rochdale
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 88% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 79%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Other | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale | 28.2% | 25.0% | 23.9% | 10.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+1.7 | 22.3%+2.7 | 5.1%+18.8 | 20.0%−9.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 104,444 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 65.7% |
Current member
Paul Waugh · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 3.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 3.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Waugh Elected | Labour | 13,027 | 32.8 |
| George Galloway | Other | 11,587 | 29.2 |
| Michael Howard | Reform UK | 6,773 | 17.1 |
| Paul Ellison | Conservative | 4,273 | 10.8 |
| Andy Kelly | Lib Dems | 2,816 | 7.1 |
| Martyn Savin | Green | 1,212 | 3.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton Labour, toss-up
- Oldham East and Saddleworth Labour, toss-up
- Heywood and Middleton North Labour, toss-up
- Blackley and Middleton South Labour, safe seat
- Ashton-under-Lyne Labour, toss-up
- Manchester Central Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated