Riding profile
Ashton-under-Lyne
The question
Ashton-under-Lyne: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Ashton-under-Lyne, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Angela Rayner
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAshton-under-Lyne | 34.1% | 27.7% | 14.0% | 10.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +8.8 | 21.7% +6.1 | 11.8% +2.1 | 18.9% −8.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Rayner Elected | Labour | 15,575 | 43.9 | — |
| Robert Barrowcliffe | Reform UK | 8,784 | 24.8 | — |
| Lizzie Hacking | Conservative | 4,375 | 12.3 | — |
| Aroma Hassan | Other | 2,835 | 8.0 | — |
| Lee Huntbach | Green | 2,481 | 7.0 | — |
| Dominic Hardwick | Lib Dems | 1,411 | 4.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029