Riding profile
Ashton-under-Lyne
The question
Ashton-under-Lyne: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.9
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAshton-under-Lyne | 35.8% | 30.8% | 11.0% | 8.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +10.4 | 21.8% +9.0 | 19.3% −8.3 | 10.8% −1.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Ashton-under-Lyne, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 36% vote share, against 31% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Angela Rayner
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Rayner Elected | Labour | 15,575 | 43.9 | — |
| Robert Barrowcliffe | Reform UK | 8,784 | 24.8 | — |
| Lizzie Hacking | Conservative | 4,375 | 12.3 | — |
| Aroma Hassan | Other | 2,835 | 8.0 | — |
| Lee Huntbach | Green | 2,481 | 7.0 | — |
| Dominic Hardwick | Lib Dems | 1,411 | 4.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029