Riding profile
Hazel Grove
The question
Hazel Grove: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHazel Grove | 33.6% | 27.4% | 16.7% | 14.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +22.3 | 25.4% +2.1 | 21.8% −5.1 | 19.3% −4.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Hazel Grove, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 34% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Lisa Smart
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Smart Elected | Lib Dems | 17,328 | 37.7 | — |
| Claire Vibert | Labour | 10,828 | 23.5 | — |
| Paul Athans | Conservative | 9,011 | 19.6 | — |
| John Kelly | Reform UK | 6,955 | 15.1 | — |
| Graham Reid | Green | 1,763 | 3.8 | — |
| Tim O'Rourke | Other | 113 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029