Riding profile
Cheadle
The question
Cheadle: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 19.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCheadle | 40.5% | 21.4% | 17.3% | 12.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +29.1 | 25.4% −4.0 | 19.3% −2.1 | 21.8% −9.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Cheadle, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 40% vote share, against 21% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Tom Morrison
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Morrison Elected | Lib Dems | 23,681 | 46.7 | — |
| Mary Robinson | Conservative | 11,446 | 22.6 | — |
| Kelly Fowler | Labour | 7,909 | 15.6 | — |
| Stephen Speakman | Reform UK | 5,149 | 10.2 | — |
| Alexander Drury | Green | 1,630 | 3.2 | — |
| Tanya Manzoor | Other | 811 | 1.6 | — |
| Marcus Farmer | Other | 105 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029