Riding profile

Cheadle

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Cheadle: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

Cheadle, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 38% vote share, against 21% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Tom Morrison

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 37.9%
  • Reform UK 20.5%
  • Conservative 18.2%
  • Labour 12.8%
  • Green 7.7%
  • Other 2.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Reform UK Conservative Labour
HereCheadle 37.9%20.5%18.2%12.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +26.3 25.3% −4.8 18.9% −0.7 21.7% −8.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
24.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tom Morrison Elected Lib Dems 23,681 46.7
Mary Robinson Conservative 11,446 22.6
Kelly Fowler Labour 7,909 15.6
Stephen Speakman Reform UK 5,149 10.2
Alexander Drury Green 1,630 3.2
Tanya Manzoor Other 811 1.6
Marcus Farmer Other 105 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
96,396
Median age
44
Employment rate
76.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029