Riding profile
Manchester Withington
The question
Manchester Withington: a safe seat for Labour?
Editorial read
Manchester Withington, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 38% vote share, against 30% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jeff Smith
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereManchester Withington | 38.0% | 30.0% | 12.9% | 10.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +16.3 | 11.8% +18.2 | 25.3% −12.4 | 11.6% −0.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Smith Elected | Labour | 22,066 | 52.9 | — |
| Sam Easterby-Smith | Green | 8,084 | 19.4 | — |
| Richard Kilpatrick | Lib Dems | 5,412 | 13.0 | — |
| Sarah Garcia De Bustos | Conservative | 2,280 | 5.5 | — |
| Kaine Williams | Reform UK | 1,961 | 4.7 | — |
| Lizzie Greenwood | Other | 1,774 | 4.3 | — |
| Wendy Andrew | Other | 154 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029