Riding profile

Manchester Withington

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Manchester Withington: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 42.1%
  • Green 26.6%
  • Reform UK 12.0%
  • Lib Dems 10.7%
  • Other 5.2%
  • Conservative 3.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Lib Dems
HereManchester Withington 42.1%26.6%12.0%10.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +20.3 10.8% +15.8 25.4% −13.3 11.4% −0.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Manchester Withington, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 42% vote share, against 27% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jeff Smith

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
33.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-18.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jeff Smith Elected Labour 22,066 52.9 —
Sam Easterby-Smith Green 8,084 19.4 —
Richard Kilpatrick Lib Dems 5,412 13.0 —
Sarah Garcia De Bustos Conservative 2,280 5.5 —
Kaine Williams Reform UK 1,961 4.7 —
Lizzie Greenwood Other 1,774 4.3 —
Wendy Andrew Other 154 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
92,705
Median age
32
Employment rate
81.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029