Riding profile

Manchester Withington

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Manchester Withington: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Manchester Withington, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 38% vote share, against 30% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jeff Smith

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 38.0%
  • Green 30.0%
  • Reform UK 12.9%
  • Lib Dems 10.9%
  • Other 4.4%
  • Conservative 3.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Lib Dems
HereManchester Withington 38.0%30.0%12.9%10.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +16.3 11.8% +18.2 25.3% −12.4 11.6% −0.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
33.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-27.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jeff Smith Elected Labour 22,066 52.9
Sam Easterby-Smith Green 8,084 19.4
Richard Kilpatrick Lib Dems 5,412 13.0
Sarah Garcia De Bustos Conservative 2,280 5.5
Kaine Williams Reform UK 1,961 4.7
Lizzie Greenwood Other 1,774 4.3
Wendy Andrew Other 154 0.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
92,705
Median age
32
Employment rate
81.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029